Financial impact of other changes

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Государственное образовательное учреждение высшего

УЧЕБНО-МЕТОДИЧЕСКОЕ ПОСОБИЕ ПО АНГЛИЙСКОМУ ЯЗЫКУ

О сдаче вступительных экзаменов по иностранному языку

1. Экзамен проводится в объеме вузовского курса иностранных языков.

2. На экзамене сдающему предлагаются следующие три вопроса.

1) Письменный перевод со словарем текста по специальности сдающего с иностранного языка на русский (1, 5 тыс. печатных знаков – 45 мин.);

2) Чтение без словаря и передача на русском языке оригинального текста по специальности (1, 5 тыс. печатных знаков = 10 мин.);

Данное учебно-методическое пособие предназначено для подготовки к сдаче вступительного экзамена по английскому языку в аспирантуру выпускниковвсех специальностей.

Цель методических указаний – предоставить возможность поступающим подготовиться к переводу текстов по своей специальности и подготовиться к беседе по темам, предусматриваемым требованиями к вступительному экзамену. Методические указания состоят из двух частей. Часть I содержит примерные образцы оригинальных текстовпо разным специальностям. Часть II включает варианты устных тем.

Рецензент Кожевникова А.И., ст. преподаватель

@ Уфимский государственный нефтяной технический университет, 2008

New supplies of energy (no matter what the source) can only be produced at much higher costs than those to which the world has been accustomed.

It is estimated that until 1990, 80 to 90 per cent of world oil could come from existing fields, provided that their production is not restricted. This percentage is then likely to drop rapidly and the balance will have to be made up from additional supplies at much higher cost, calling for capital investments up to ten times greater than before.

Low-cost Oil. An additional 10 to 15 million barrels per day of low-cost oil could be expected, for example from the Middle-East, Mexico and some other parts of Latin America. Most of this production is under the control of the producing governments and its rate of production is uncertain. The average capital cost of such oil is around $2, 000 to $3, 000 per daily barrel of production capacity (i.e., for each barrel per day of production), but this is expected to continued to increase in real terms.

Medium-cost oil. Medium-cost oil should account for up to 10 million barrels per day by the late 1990s. Capital costs in this category are estimated to increase from $8, 000 to $20, 000 per daily barrel between now and the year 2000. It will include production from smaller fields offshore, deeper drilling of complex structures and many new projects in Western Europe, the United States and the USSR.

High-cost Oil. Around 5 million barrels of oil a day up to the year 2000 and a rapidly growing share of world production thereafter are expected to come from high-cost sources, such as enhanced recovery, tar sands and from such hostile and remote areas as Siberia and the North American Arctic. Capital costs of this oil, currently averaging around $18, 000 per daily barrel capacity could rise to $35, 000 by the turn of the century. On this basis, although high-cost oil would represent only about one-quarter or less of new production, it would begin to take the lion’s share of investment. For this reason, even total volumes of oil were to stabilize or decline within the next twenty years, projections for exploration and production expenditure would soar.

The costs quoted above (for low-, medium and high-cost oil) are all expressed in 1980 money (in other words, with no allowance for inflation).

Of the other alternative energy sources, hydroelectricity projects have already been introduced in most site sin the developed countries where conditions are suitable, but there is still considerable potential in the developing countries especially in Africa and South America. The costs of other alternatives (solar, wind, tidal and so on) are high, except under particularly favourable circumstances. Large-scale contributions can only come about if the problem of the cost of storage of electricity is solved.

The indications are that countries will increasingly try to find localize solutions to their energy requirements, seeking to maximise supply security and to minimise balance of payments problems. The building of nuclear plants in France is one example of this; the use of biomass in Brazil another.

Apart from the very large projected increased capital costs of providing new energy supplies, the financial outlook is complicated by other significant changes. Whereas the rapid expansion of the oil industry in the late 1940s onwards was essentially financed by the Oil Majors’ recycling of funds, with capital expenditures largely catered for out of retained earnings, this pattern is likely to be less pronounced in the future. There is a move towards more emphasis on project financing involving greater resource to borrowing from financial institutions. The provision of finance in the massive amounts necessary has now to be arranged in a less propitious investment climate of worldwide political uncertainty against a background of long lead-times, changing technology, changing markets and the exponential scale of risk involved in large projects.

As long as society accords the necessary priority to the provision of energy the massive financial resources required will doubtless be forthcoming, but in the context outlined above this must result ultimately in customers paying more in real terms for the energy they use.

Growing internationalization will make it a more dependable source of energy with less reliance on a limited number of suppliers. Although coal deposits are regionally dispersed, an increasing concentration of control over production and trade may occur. A significant growth of trade will give rise to financing requirements equivalent to about 4 % of overall investment requirements in OECD countries. This could continue over a period of two decades or more, but sudden surges in financing requirements would compete with their industrial investment needs through increases in interest rates. In developments countries, financing problems are likely to be the most severe, so here emphasis will continue to be on private investment in export projects. Concentration of control will be encouraged by the more complex and coordinated planning required in international trade, including expertise in marketing, finance, transportation and, in particular, by the need to reduce the risks inherent in long-term coal infrastructure projects. Difficulties in raising finance partly account for increased concentration of production which has already occurred in the United States of America and Australia. In the USA price increases in the 1970s raised the profitability of the goal industry, but since then a worsening financial situation has been accompanied by the operation of larger mines by fewer companies. Multinational oil companies have been increasingly active in developing countries and new problems, in relation to the economic, environmental and social impacts in these areas, will arise and will require effective management.

Foreign industries in collusion with their governments can participate in orchestrated price fixing and product dumping to economically break domestic companies and remove them from competition, clearing the way for later market control and price hikes to consumers. Foreign economic and political suppression in the pursuit of international market advantages by foreign political and oligarchies can also be an impetus for social dislocation and illegal immigration or other problems that directly affect the United States. Modern political conditions are complex but cannot be divorced from economic planning and protection of U.S. economic interests.

Tariffs, the source of a large percentage of federal revenue in early America, may be a positive and even necessary economic tool in some circumstances. Citizens incur the liability of tariffs in the same manner as domestic excise taxes – higher prices. But they also enjoy the same benefit – government receipts to the Treasury, and the country may benefit from t6ariffs in the protection of key industries. A high degree of economic caution is warranted when considering tariffs, but their implementation may be necessary under certain conditions to protect American consumers, industry, or national security.